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The Greatest Crash by David Kauders

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In your basket. The rally serves to create a new surprise when it ends and the downward trend resumes. The counter-trend rally that follows each downward price drive should, according to Dow, retrace one third to two thirds of the lost ground, with an average peak at half the lost ground. A bear market involves wild price gyrations, compared with the relatively smooth progression of the bull market. Two tests among others also show whether a bear market is in progress.

The relationship between price movements and volume of trade is different.


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In a bull market volume of trade rises as prices rise, because rising prices encourage more investors to buy. However, in a bear market volume rises as prices fall, since people sell the downtrend. Experienced investors buy early in the bull market, while the public, whose speculation always marks a market top, invariably buy last. In a bear market, commercially minded investors sell early, while others hold on, refusing to take any loss, hoping for better times.

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Markets move in great cycles and every bull market is followed by a bear market as surely as night follows day. Bear markets are a normal part of the capitalist system. It is essential to maintain some perspective as to time: the Wall Street crash of the Thirties spread over four years, whereas the great Japanese bear market has now been ongoing for more than 25 years. Interpretation is subjective: either the dotcom bust or the credit crunch, or even both, may be Dow's first phase. David Kauders has long argued that the era of inflation will give way to deflation. We urge you to turn off your ad blocker for The Telegraph website so that you can continue to access our quality content in the future.

Visit our adblocking instructions page. Telegraph Money Investing Shares. The Wall Street crash of the Thirties spread over four years, whereas the great Japanese bear market has been ongoing for more than 25 years. The world is now moving into a rerun of the credit crunch, albeit with some differences. This limit is a barrier whichever way policymakers turn. Leading market historian: 'Shares could halve from here' 30 years of bear markets - history tells us what's next Below is a chart of the FTSE adjusted for inflation.

A s a result, panic selling appears. Each phase itself can be broken down into a series of declines and rallies. The duration of a rally is longer than the downward drive, since prices rise on most days. Investor behaviour changes. Certainly there has been no third-phase climax of selling. Sooner or later, the downward drives will resume.